Tinubu Presidency: An Unfolding Expensive Joke

Photo Credit: BusinessDay

The last presidential election was the most uninspiring one for me since I gained political consciousness. Election periods in democratic dispensations signify moments of renewed hope and change. Of the three popular candidates, only Peter Obi of the Labour Party signified hope for Nigeria. Due to the factor of political structure, it was apparent that the former governor of Anambra state might just be physically exercising himself in the presidential race, literally speaking. 

There were not many significant differences between Atiku and Tinubu except for their membership of opposing political parties namely the APC and PDP. It was more of the scenario of the same rats in different holes. They both have similar sources of income, reputations, trailing allegations of corruption, hunger for power, and others. 

As Nigerians geared up for a 'change', I sensed it would be more of former President Muhammadu Buhari's version of political 'change'.

The moment Tinubu suspected his presidential ambition was on shaky legs, he grabbed the nearest microphone to scream at the top of his voice that it was his turn to be president (Emi Lokan). It was like Nigeria runs a monarchy and not a democracy.  The 'Emi Lokan' statement which became a slogan heightened my anxiety. Tinubu wanted to be handpicked to be President.  The statement exposes the existing cesspool of corruption that general elections in Nigeria have been enmeshed in.

I have no issues with highly ambitious people, but from a psychological perspective, I fear the desperate ones. Apart from their questionable intentions, they have a flagrant disregard for due process. They are usually open to the option of cheating the system to have their way.

Since Tinubu became president, the poor have technically been urged to become poorer for a greater Nigeria. Just yesterday, the League of Youth Voters for Tinubu and Shettima called the president's attention to the unbearable cost of living for ordinary Nigerians.

It appears Tinubu is crudely checking ideas on Google and hoping one of them would work. I see a man who is more concerned about providing content for his media team to effectively launder his image, than pursuing good governance. The reality of life in Nigeria is so abysmal that even if you give someone your head as assistance, he might return in no time to ask for your legs. Nigerians in the diaspora are bleeding to death to cater to the ones back home.

Tinubu's economic decisions look good on paper but lack possibilities for implementation. Tinubu's administration with all due respect is looking as funny as how he staggered on his way to the podium during the APC presidential primaries. It was almost as if Tinubu retired to the event after a long day at the bar.

When Tinubu said he wanted to follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Buhari, I perceived it as a 'threat'. But it appears he meant it. From the day of his inauguration on the 29th of May, 2023; he reportedly went off script by announcing the removal of the highly contentious fuel subsidy. Nobody is against the removal of fuel subsidies, but it should be systematically done with structures and palliatives put in place to cushion the effects of the accompanying economic shocks. Appropriate pressure and advocacy groups like the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, and other civil societies should be duly consulted. Tinubu towed the same line and manner that he criticized the former president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan for over 10 years ago.

Let's run through some of the missteps of the Tinubu administration so far:

(1) Poverty crisis

According to the World Bank, 4 million Nigerians slipped into poverty in the first half of 2023. The Bretton Woods institution has also warned that 7.1 million others could follow suit this year alone if the fuel subsidy removal is not well managed. With no reasonable palliatives in sight coupled with Tinubu's obsession with taxation, the figure might double.

(2) Rising inflation and cost of living

Inflation is another cancer eating deep into the heart of the Tinubu administration. Due to the global energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation has become pronounced across the world. Tinubu also aggravated the situation locally by the removal of fuel subsidies. This has pushed the price of fuel to about N600 and N700 per litre. The floating of Naira has also taken its toll on the already slim pockets of the poor masses. The naira has deeply dropped in value as against the dollar and other competing currencies. In specific terms, the devaluation of the naira has caused a 70% inflationary pressure on the Nigerian economy.

For a country that imports everything and only produces 'newborn babies' en masse, it would struggle to manage the inflation rate. Food prices will also go up with the recent plan of VAT collection from market traders and the informal sector.

Naira currently exchanges for N774 per dollar, inflation rate is at a staggering 24% and could hit 30% at the end of the year according to economic projections. What adds salt to the injury of Nigeria is the unemployment rate which is approaching 41% from 2022’s 37.7% according to KPMG.

Tinubu's economic policies are beginning to look like an effective and research-certified weight loss programme. 

The removal of fuel subsidy would later affect the electricity tariff which was projected to increase by a staggering 40% earlier this month. This is happening amidst an age-long unsteady supply of electricity. Indirectly, the consumers are paying expensively for darkness! 

In the UK, energy costs were subsidized with households getting a £400 discount spread over a 6-month period. This also includes a spending cap as part of a government protection initiative. This is a system that truly cares.

(3) Tinubu's student loan policy

In a desperate bid to win the hearts of the people and give his media team contents to fly with, Tinubu announced the policy of student loans. How does he intend to finance it with the debt of Nigeria standing at N46.25 trillion? How will the beneficiaries pay back in a country where most citizens seek spiritual help to tackle unemployment challenges?  In the Western world alone, those student loans easily become bad debts.  The Supreme Court recently blocked US President Joe Biden's plan to grant debt forgiveness of $430 billion to 43 million American students. If students in the US despite their viable economy can't repay their debts, is it in Nigeria where the cash crunch has turned people into refugees abroad that beneficiaries would fulfill their loan obligations?

(4) Godwin Emefiele's arrest

Anybody who believes the former CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele, was arrested due to his alleged corrupt practices can believe his mother is a man. He has been accused of mismanaging Nigeria's finances but a member of his management team - Folashodun Shonubi, is heading the apex bank in an acting capacity. Isn't that contradictory or did Emefiele take all the decisions unilaterally? If fighting corruption meant something to Tinubu, the INEC chairman Mahmood Yakubu should be in an underground cell for organizing an election that was recently discredited by the EU observers. 

(5) The RMAFC controversy

As Nigerians grappled with making painful sacrifices for a better country, news emerged that the Revenue Mobilisation, Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) was planning to increase the salaries of Tinubu and other public officers by 114%. The move was later denied but Nigerians with discerning minds know that the ruling elites were testing the waters. The public outrage appeared to have prompted the governmental body to retrace its steps.

(6) N400 billion subsidy savings

The operators within the downstream oil and gas sector claimed the federal government has saved N400 billion in one month from subsidy removal. The body reinforced the initial view of Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, NNPCL, that the country spends N400 billion monthly on fuel subsidies. This money has become an object of political brickbat with the Socio-Economic Rights Accountability Project (SERAP) demanding that Tinubu publishes the spending details of the N400 billion. Tinubu appears to have ignored this as anticipated.

(7) Tinubu's team

Let's take a look at Tinubu's team so far. The ministerial list wasn't out at the time of writing this piece. I will like to point out that the faces we are seeing around him are the regular politicians capable of changing political parties like they change their underwear. As for his Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, can we point to any initiative of his as the House Speaker which could directly affect the lives of Nigerians like Obamacare? We also have Nuhu Ribadu and Godswill Akpabio who have varying degrees of controversies trailing them. Tinubu also set the bar low when he granted an audience to a former Niger Delta militant, Asari Dokubo - his lousy supporter on social media. What positive change can a character like that bring?

Nigerians have been brainwashed to believe they need to endure harsh and excruciatingly painful economic shocks for a better Nigeria. They have been begged to exercise patience. We have heard these before. Buhari also said the same. Nigeria is a country that benefits the rich at the expense of the poor. As I have emphasized in the past, the same reason why some people are stupendously rich is the reason why others are so impoverished.

Removing fuel subsidy is a low-hanging fruit for Tinubu. As long as it doesn't affect the elites, he is safe. If Tinubu cares so much about Nigeria, he would target reducing the gargantuan cost of governance. Government offices are over-duplicated. The offices are flooded with rent-seeking aides with no portfolios. According to the Guardian, N8.5 trillion of Nigeria's N21.82 trillion for the year 2023 would be spent paying salaries and allowances of public officers and other expenses. As maintaining the Presidency gulps N14.2 billion out of this year's budget, the National Assembly - the committee of bloated old men draws a whooping sum of N228.1 billion from the budget. Nigeria will spend N62.47 billion on the 10 presidential fleets this year alone. 

Nigeria is estimated to have lost over $582 billion to corruption in 61yrs according to the Youth Initiative for Advocacy, Growth and Advancement - YIAGA Africa (2021). The Chartered Institute of Forensic and Investigative Professionals of Nigeria (CIFIPN) in 2022 said 70 to 75% of Nigeria’s national budget is lost to corrupt practices at all levels of governance in the country.

Measures to tackle these challenges of corruption and the high cost of governance will attract the ire of Tinubu's upper-class friends.  This isn't a battle Tinubu fancies. The better option of a high reward and low risks is the masses. They can be easily subdued using political, religious, tribal, and security tactics. 

I understand many Nigerians want to be optimistic about the Tinubu administration, especially when the financial wherewithal isn't there to 'japa' (relocate abroad). The facts don't lie! The story of the Tinubu administration doesn't add up.

Tinubu will not be too different from Buhari in terms of leadership. I fear the job which runs for 24hrs might take its toll on his health and another Buhari episode of constant medical tourism might play out again. In the absence of Tinubu, power-grabbers will selfishly compete for control of political powers.  The poor masses will always be the victims of their actions.

The major gain from the Tinubu administration might be the consolidation of political power to pave the way for the Southerners. More people of the Yoruba tribe will be represented in power. As Buhari leaned towards the north, Tinubu would bend towards his people, but it might not be as chronic as his predecessor.

Nigeria would take the Lagos pattern in terms of governance. On the pages of newspapers, Nigeria would appear to have recorded giant strides, but in reality, it is all the same story. I grew up in Ibadan, I heard so many impressive stories about Lagos. The media machinery of Lagos marketed the city to many outsiders, causing them to relocate for better economic opportunities. After a year in Lagos, the euphoria perished almost forever. It was all Nollywood - make-believe!

Tinubu knows the importance of the media. He has a mastery of controlling public perception. He has also invested in the media by reportedly owning a prominent TV station and a national newspaper company. Several Twitter influencers and celebrities are allegedly under his payroll. They are taxed with the main duty of amplifying Tinubu's achievements.

Life is self-regulatory; lies come with short-term gains but never last. The truth has a long lifespan.  Tinubu's media agents can claim he is an embodiment of the late Obafemi Awolowo and Chief MKO Abiola, but those that experience Nigeria directly would in no time see traces of a possible lower or slightly higher version of Buhari. I pray I will be proved wrong in the end.

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Osahon George Osayimwen writes from Sheffield, United Kingdom